NIFS-242

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Author(s):

O.J.W.F. Kardaun, S.-I. Itoh, K. Itoh and J.W.P.F. Kardaun

Title:

Discriminant Analysis to Predict the Occurrence of ELMS in H-Mode Discharges

Date of publication:

Aug. 1993

Key words:

Discriminant Analysis, H-mode, Small ELMs, Giant ELMs, Statistical Analysis

Abstract:

After an exposition of its theoretical background, discriminant analysis is applied to the H-mode confinement database to find the region in plasma parameter space in which H-mode with small ELMs (Edge Localized Modes) is likely to occur. The boundary of this region is determined by the condition that the probability of appearance of such a type of H-mode, as a function of the plasma parameters, should be (1) larger than some threshold value and (2) larger than the corresponding probability for other types of H-mode (i.e., H-mode without ELMs or with giant ELMs). In practice, the discrimination has been performed for the ASDEX, JET and JFT-2M tokamaks (a) using four instantaneous plasma parameters (injected power P_inj , magnetic field B_t, plasma current I_p and line averaged electron density bar{n}_e) and (b) taking also memory effects of the plasma and the distance between the plasma and the wall into account, while using variables that are normalised with respect to machine size. Generally speaking, it is found that there is a substantial overlap between the region of H-mode with small ELMs and the region of the two other types of H-mode. However, the ELM-free and the giant ELM H-modes relatively rarely appear in the region, that, according to the analysis, is allocated to small ELMs. A reliable production of H-mode with only small ELMs seems well possible by choosing this regime in parameter space. In the present study, it was not attempted to arrive at a unified discrimination across the machines. So, projection from one machine to another remains difficult, and a reliable determination of the region where small ELMs occur still requires a training sample from the device under consideration.

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